More than a decade ago, I wrote a blog called “When will the sneaker cycle end?.  This blog got a ton of looks.

Then, in the last month, I’ve had 2 sneaker execs ask me the same question.

My answer this time?  The same: It’s not going to end. We are in a permanent state of sneakerness.

But things are different now.  Let’s explore.

According to recent public Circana data, the shoe business is not very good right now, except for athletic footwear, which outpaced the other footwear categories.  From historical data, the industry has averaged a low to mid-single CAGR for 20+ years and always trended better than the brown shoe side.

So, yes sneakers continue to rule.

But now, as we saw 10 years ago, there is tremendous volatility below the top line.  Performance Basketball has been sideways for more than a decade. We don’t have upstart categories as we did then with Toning shoes.  (Maybe trail running is next?).  A decade ago, performance running sales had plateaued.

One category that has had sustained growth is sport lifestyle, driven by retro.

Athleisure, along with denim, has dominated the apparel fashion world for years and while athletic has shifted away from sweats and hoodies, performance-as-fashion apparel has stepped up to fill that void. Athletic apparel and denim go great with sneakers.

So, what’s different?  I would argue that the definition of “sneakers” has changed, now covering a broader range of shoes.  To me, Birkenstocks are sneakers, more so because Birkenstock is being run like a sneaker company.  Same with Crocs and Hey Dude. While not technically sneakers, they fill the bill.  The sneaker tent just got bigger.

Another key change is that the consumer is back in charge.  The recent run of Adidas Samba and Birkenstock Boston are examples of the consumer making a trend, while the brands stood back and watched.

The hype and drop model feels badly broken, hurt mostly by greed.  Accessible and inclusive are the new ways to win.  Managing the marketplace has never been more important.  Brands need to stop talking and start listening.

The business of performance running shoes for running is not great right now, but the performance running shoes as streetwear continues to be strong. This change requires brands and retailers to adopt a new way of thinking.

The retro business has been hurt by the necessary Nike pull back but will bounce back as that abates.  Y2K styles are on fire. But styles must be managed carefully. This is not a “set it and forget it” kind of trend.

Low profile is working across a number of brands and channels, just as maximal cushioned, high stack shoes have matured.

Dress/casual brands are now living off of “sneakers”. Outdoors and athletic continue to blend and blur.

So, the wheel keeps spinning in the sneaker cycle.  Just don’t count on it stopping any time soon.

Matt Powell & Walt Shepard